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Czechia vs Mexico — World Cup 2026 Group A, 25 June 2026: Prediction, Odds & Key Bets

World Cup · Group Stage - 3 · · 🏟 Estadio Banorte, Mexico City
Czechia
0 : 3
Finished
Mexico Winner
👨‍⚖️ Referee: Yael Falcon Perez, Argentina
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Match Events

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Lineups

Mexico 4-3-3

Starting XI

  • 1 R. Rangel G
  • 2 J. Sanchez D
  • 3 C. Montes D
  • 15 I. Reyes D
  • 20 M. Chavez Garcia D
  • 19 G. Mora M
  • 4 E. Alvarez M
  • 7 L. Romo M
  • 25 R. Alvarado F
  • 22 G. Martinez F
  • 16 J. Quinones F

Substitutes

  • 13 G. Ochoa G
  • 12 C. Acevedo G
  • 9 R. Jimenez F
  • 24 L. Chavez M
  • 5 J. Vasquez D
  • 18 O. Vargas M
  • 17 O. Pineda M
  • 8 A. Fidalgo M
  • 23 J. Gallardo D
  • 10 A. Vega F
  • 11 S. Gimenez F
  • 21 C. S. Huerta Valera M
  • 6 E. Lira M
  • 26 B. Gutierrez M
  • 14 A. Gonzalez F
👨‍🏫 Coach: Javier Aguirre
Czechia

Starting XI

  • 1 M. Kovar G
  • 3 T. Holes D
  • 4 R. Hranac D
  • 7 L. Krejci D
  • 5 V. Coufal M
  • 12 L. Cerv M
  • 18 M. Sadilek M
  • 21 D. Doudera M
  • 15 P. Sulc F
  • 26 D. Visinsky F
  • 9 A. Hlozek F

Substitutes

  • 16 J. Stanek G
  • 23 L. Hornicek G
  • 10 P. Schick F
  • 17 L. Provod M
  • 11 J. Kuchta F
  • 2 D. Zima D
  • 24 A. Sojka M
  • 6 S. Chaloupek D
  • 20 J. Zeleny D
  • 8 V. Darida M
  • 19 T. Chory F
  • 22 T. Soucek M
  • 13 M. Chytil F
  • 25 H. Sochurek M
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Statistics

Czechia Mexico
1
Shots on Goal
5
8
Shots off Goal
4
13
Total Shots
11
4
Blocked Shots
2
6
Shots insidebox
9
7
Shots outsidebox
2
9
Fouls
13
5
Corner Kicks
1
1
Offsides
0
52%
Ball Possession
48%
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
398
Total Passes
386
333
Accurate Passes
330
84%
Pass Accuracy
85%
0.53
expected_goals
1.74
0.13
goals_prevented
0.13
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The Stakes

Mexico are already through and top Group A with a perfect record (2:0 South Africa, 1:0 South Korea, two clean sheets); a win or draw confirms first place. Czechia must win to keep any hope alive — a draw leaves them dependent on the South Korea–South Africa result. Aguirre may rotate slightly, but with home advantage at the Azteca and top spot on offer, Mexico will field a strong side.

Key Points

  • Mexico’s defence: no goals conceded in two games — well-drilled and hard to break down.
  • Czechia must chase: needing a win, they’ll push forward and leave space for Mexico’s counter (Raúl Jiménez, Santiago Giménez).
  • Set-piece threat: Czechia scored seven goals from corners in qualifying — Soucek and Schick are the danger from dead balls, their clearest route to a goal.
  • Tempo: a cagey first half is likely; Mexico need only manage the game.

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Prediction & Probabilities

Outcome Typical odds Implied (no-vig) Our model
Mexico win +100 (2.00) ~47% 48%
Draw +300 (4.00) ~27% 27%
Czechia win +285 (3.85) ~26% 25%

Verdict: a controlled Mexico win or a tight draw. With El Tri solid at the back and Czechia forced to open up, a low-scoring home win is the most likely script. Headline call: Mexico 2-1 (or a 1-1 draw if Aguirre rotates heavily)

Bets to Note

  • Under 2.5 goals — Mexico’s clean sheets and a likely controlled game.
  • Raúl Jiménez anytime scorer — Mexico’s focal point, in form, lethal on the counter.
  • Czechia from a set-piece (Schick / Soucek) — their main goal threat — a both-teams-to-score angle.
  • Mexico to win & under 3.5 — captures a likely controlled home win.
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Prediction & Odds

Prediction 45%
Czechia 10%
Draw 45%
Mexico 45%

💡 Tip: Combo Double chance : draw or Mexico and -3.5 goals

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Tournament Situation

Group A

# Team P Pts ± Form
1 Mexico 3 9 +6
L W W W W
2 South Africa 3 4 -1
L W D L
3 South Korea 3 3 -1
L L W
4 Czechia 3 1 -4
L D L

All group matches have been played.

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Head to Head

  • 27.03.2020 Mexico 0 : 0 Czechia Friendlies