Uruguay vs Spain — World Cup 2026 Group H, 27 June 2026: Prediction, Odds & Key Bets
World Cup
· Group Stage - 3
·
· 🏟 Estadio Akron, Zapopan 
Match Events
- 42' ⚽ A. Baena M. Llorente
- 45' 🔄 M. Ugarte N. de la Cruz · Substitution 1
- 46' 🟨 Alex Baena · Yellow Card
- 46' 🔄 F. Muslera S. Rochet · Substitution 2
- 54' 🟨 Juan Sanabria · Yellow Card
- 57' 🔄 F. Valverde F. Vinas · Substitution 3
- 58' 🟨 Guillermo Varela · Yellow Card
- 60' 🔄 Pedri F. Ruiz · Substitution 1
- 60' 🔄 M. Merino D. Olmo · Substitution 2
- 66' 🔄 A. Baena Y. Pino · Substitution 3
- 70' 🔄 J. Sanabria B. Rodriguez · Substitution 4
- 76' 🔄 M. Oyarzabal F. Torres · Substitution 4
- 76' 🔄 Lamine Yamal N. Williams · Substitution 5
- 90+3' 🟨 Nicolás de la Cruz · Yellow Card
- 90+5' 🟥 Agustín Canobbio · Red Card
Lineups
Uruguay
4-1-4-1
Starting XI
- 23 F. Muslera G
- 13 G. Varela D
- 3 S. Caceres D
- 16 M. Olivera D
- 25 J. Sanabria D
- 5 M. Ugarte M
- 14 A. Canobbio M
- 6 R. Bentancur M
- 8 F. Valverde M
- 20 M. Araujo M
- 9 D. Nunez F
Substitutes
- 1 S. Rochet G
- 12 S. Mele G
- 2 J. Gimenez D
- 10 G. de Arrascaeta M
- 17 M. Vina D
- 4 R. Araujo D
- 18 B. Rodriguez F
- 21 F. Vinas F
- 15 E. Martinez M
- 19 R. Aguirre F
- 7 N. de la Cruz M
- 24 S. Bueno D
- 22 J. Piquerez D
- 26 R. Zalazar M
- 11 F. Pellistri M
Spain
4-2-3-1
Starting XI
- 23 U. Simon G
- 5 M. Llorente D
- 22 P. Cubarsi D
- 14 A. Laporte D
- 24 M. Cucurella D
- 20 Pedri M
- 16 Rodri M
- 19 Lamine Yamal M
- 6 M. Merino M
- 15 A. Baena M
- 21 M. Oyarzabal F
Substitutes
- 1 D. Raya G
- 13 J. Garcia G
- 8 F. Ruiz M
- 7 F. Torres F
- 12 P. Porro D
- 18 M. Zubimendi M
- 9 Gavi M
- 3 A. Grimaldo D
- 26 B. Iglesias F
- 10 D. Olmo M
- 4 E. Garcia D
- 11 Y. Pino M
- 17 N. Williams F
- 25 V. Munoz F
- 2 M. Pubill D
Statistics
The Stakes
Spain (1st, 4 pts) need only a draw to confirm top spot after a 0:0 with Cape Verde and a 4:0 rout of Saudi Arabia. Uruguay (2nd, 2 pts) have drawn both games (1:1 Saudi Arabia, 2:2 Cape Verde) and need a result — a win guarantees the Round of 32, a draw may suffice depending on Cape Verde–Saudi Arabia. Spain are clear favourites and clicking; Bielsa’s Uruguay must finally fire. Note: Pedri suspended for Spain.
Key Points
- Spain’s depth: Yamal & Oyarzabal (2 goals each) lead a fluid attack; bench depth (Nico Williams, Ferran, Merino) is elite.
- Uruguay’s wobble: conceded in both games, only two draws, blunt up top — defensive fragility Spain will target.
- Pedri out (suspended): Spain reshape midfield around Rodri & Fabián Ruiz.
- Bielsa factor: high press could drag Spain into duels, but quality gap is wide; H2H favours Spain (no Uruguay win in modern era).
Prediction & Probabilities
| Outcome | Typical odds | Implied (no-vig) | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain win | −200 (1.50) | ~60% | 58% |
| Draw | +320 (4.20) | ~22% | 24% |
| Uruguay win | +550 (6.50) | ~18% | 18% |
Verdict: Spain’s class should tell against an out-of-sorts Uruguay, though La Celeste’s grit keeps it competitive. Headline call: Spain 2-1 (or 2-0)
Bets to Note
- Spain to win — superior quality, momentum and a settled system.
- Over 2.5 goals — Spain’s firepower + Uruguay’s leaky defence (3 conceded in 2).
- Mikel Oyarzabal anytime scorer — Spain’s reliable No. 9, shortest-priced.
- Lamine Yamal anytime scorer — in-form, a Golden Boot contender.
Odds are indicative (early June 2026) and move constantly — confirm live prices with a licensed operator before betting. For information/entertainment only; not betting advice. 18+ (21+ in some US jurisdictions). Betting involves risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, seek support (e.g. 1-800-GAMBLER in the US, BeGambleAware.org in the UK).
Prediction & Odds
💡 Tip: Double chance : draw or Spain
Tournament Situation
Group H
| # | Team | P | Pts | ± | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Spain
|
3 | 7 | +5 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
| 2 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
3 | 3 | 0 |
L
D
D
D
|
| 3 |
Uruguay
|
3 | 2 | -1 |
L
D
D
|
| 4 |
Saudi Arabia
|
3 | 2 | -4 |
D
L
D
|
All group matches have been played.
Head to Head
-
16.06.2013
Spain
2 : 1
Uruguay
Confederations Cup