Colombia vs DR Congo — World Cup 2026 Group K, 24 June 2026: Prediction, Odds & Betting Analysis

Match Overview

Colombia can take a giant step toward the knockout rounds in Guadalajara. Néstor Lorenzo’s side top Group K after a 3-1 win over Uzbekistan — Luis Díaz, Daniel Muñoz and Jaminton Campaz all scoring — while DR Congo produced one of the tournament’s upsets, holding Portugal to a 1-1 draw. A Colombia win would all but seal qualification with a game to spare; for DR Congo, defeat would likely leave their historic campaign reliant on the final matchday.

Colombia are clear favourites, carrying elite attacking quality through Luis Díaz and James Rodríguez and strong tournament momentum. But Sébastien Desabre’s DR Congo — back at a World Cup for the first time since 1974 (as Zaire) — are organised, disciplined and dangerous on the break, marshalled by Chancel Mbemba and led up top by Yoane Wissa. Expect Colombia to control possession, with the Leopards looking to frustrate and counter in the Guadalajara heat and altitude.

Where & How to Watch (HD & 4K)

In the United States the match airs in English on FOX and in Spanish on Telemundo, and streams live and on demand in 4K Ultra HD via FOX One — all 104 games are available in 4K through Fox’s platforms. To watch in true 4K you need a UHD-capable screen plus a service carrying Fox’s 4K feeds (FuboTV, YouTube TV with the 4K Plus add-on, DIRECTV or Comcast Xfinity, whose RealTime4K tier adds Dolby Vision HDR and Dolby Atmos); Hulu + Live TV and the Spanish Peacock feed are HD only. As a Mexico-hosted game, local coverage runs through Televisa/TUDN with huge Latin American interest; Colombia’s via Caracol/RCN, DR Congo’s via regional broadcasters, and UK viewers get free-to-air HD on ITV/BBC. Standard HD is available almost everywhere; 4K is the premium upgrade for those with the kit.

Form Guide

Colombia — top of the group and in form

Colombia opened with a commanding 3-1 win over Uzbekistan, producing 15 attempts and goals from Muñoz, Díaz and Campaz. Néstor Lorenzo’s side carry one of their deepest squads in recent World Cup history, built around the elite threat of Luis Díaz and the creativity of James Rodríguez. The one note of caution: they have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five, so DR Congo’s counter is a genuine threat to a goal at the other end.

DR Congo — historic and well-drilled

DR Congo’s 1-1 draw with Portugal was one of the tournament’s standout results — Yoane Wissa’s header earning the nation its first-ever World Cup goal and point, 52 years after their only previous appearance as Zaire. Sébastien Desabre has built a disciplined, compact side capable of absorbing pressure and hitting on the break, anchored by the vastly experienced Chancel Mbemba and the energy of Aaron Wan-Bissaka. Pre-tournament losses to Chile and Denmark, though, flag struggles against quick, pressing sides.

Head-to-Head

The nations have never met in men’s international football. Colombia have won all three of their World Cup games against African opposition since a 1990 defeat to Cameroon, each by a single goal — a record that quietly reinforces their favouritism without offering DR Congo any direct precedent.

Key Players

Colombia

• Luis Díaz (FW): The elite, in-form attacker (a prolific club season) and Colombia’s most dangerous direct threat from the left.
• James Rodríguez (MF): The creative fulcrum pulling the strings and the supply line to Colombia’s front line.
• Daniel Muñoz (DEF): An attacking full-back who scored against Uzbekistan and provides width and overlaps.

DR Congo

• Yoane Wissa (FW): Scorer of DR Congo’s historic first World Cup goal — their main outlet and likeliest source of a counter-attacking goal.
• Chancel Mbemba (DEF, captain): 100+ caps of experience anchoring a disciplined, resilient defence.
• Aaron Wan-Bissaka (DEF): Dynamic energy and defensive solidity at right-back.

Prediction & Win Probabilities

We convert the market prices into fair (no-vig) probabilities and cross-check them against prediction markets. Colombia are clear favourites.

Verdict: Colombia to win, but not necessarily comfortably. Their attacking quality should break down a disciplined DR Congo block, though the Leopards’ resilience and Colombia’s leaky defence point to a goal at the other end. A 2-1 fits the most likely script, with Both-Teams-To-Score a strong supporting read.

Most likely scorelines

Headline call: Colombia to win 2-1

Goals, Cards & Corners Forecast

Total goals

Colombia’s attacking output and their failure to keep clean sheets recently, combined with DR Congo’s ability to score (as against Portugal), point to the Over and Both-Teams-To-Score. The Guadalajara heat and altitude may temper the tempo late, but goals look likely at both ends.

Lean: Over 2.5 goals · BTTS — Yes

Cards

A physical DR Congo defending deep against Colombia’s attacks points to a moderate count of around 4 bookings, weighted toward the Leopards.

Lean: Over 3.5 total cards · DR Congo to receive the most cards

Corners

Colombia will dominate possession and the corner count against a deeper DR Congo. Expect a total in the 9-11 range, weighted to Colombia.

Lean: Over 9.5 total corners · Colombia most corners

Headline Betting Markets & Odds

Odds shown are indicative (early June 2026, US/UK books). Always refresh live prices before publishing or betting.

Recommended Value Picks

1. Colombia to win — superior attacking quality and momentum against a disciplined but outgunned DR Congo.
2. Luis Díaz anytime scorer — the elite, in-form attacker and Colombia’s likeliest goal source.
3. Both teams to score — Yes — Colombia’s leaky defence and DR Congo’s proven ability to score (v Portugal).
4. Colombia win & BTTS — captures the likely narrative: Colombia edging a game with goals at both ends.

Non-Obvious & Set-Piece Angles Sharp picks

With a disciplined block to break down and Colombia’s defence not watertight, the value sits in the scorer, counter-threat and game-state markets.

• DR Congo to score (Wissa): he scored against Portugal and could become only the second African to net in his first two World Cup games — a live both-teams-to-score angle.
• James Rodríguez assist / anytime: the creative hub most likely to unlock a compact Congolese block.
• Daniel Muñoz anytime: an attacking full-back who already scored this tournament — a value scorer pick.
• First goal after the 20th minute: DR Congo’s organisation may keep it tight early before Colombia break through.
• Colombia to score in both halves: sustained pressure should produce goals across the 90.
• A card after the 70th minute: fatigue and tactical fouls cluster late as a deep block tires.

Bottom Line

Colombia’s attacking quality and momentum should see them edge past an organised DR Congo and move toward qualification, but the Leopards’ resilience and Colombia’s defensive lapses point to goals at both ends rather than a comfortable win. Back Colombia and the over, with Díaz the scorer pick and both-teams-to-score a strong supporting angle — while saluting DR Congo’s historic return to this stage.

Final prediction: Colombia 2-1 DR Congo · Colombia win · Luis Díaz anytime scorer

Odds are indicative and were accurate at the time of writing (early June 2026); they move constantly, so always confirm live prices with a licensed operator before betting. This article is for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not betting advice. 18+ (21+ in some US jurisdictions). Betting involves risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, seek support from a responsible-gambling service in your country (e.g. 1-800-GAMBLER in the US, BeGambleAware.org in the UK).