Norway vs France — World Cup 2026 Group I, 26 June 2026: Prediction, Odds & Key Bets
World Cup
· Group Stage - 3
·
· 🏟 Gillette Stadium, Boston
👨⚖️ Referee: Michael Oliver, England
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Match Events
- 7' ⚽ O. Dembele K. Mbappe
- 10' 🟨 Patrick Berg · Yellow Card
- 20' ⚽ O. Dembele K. Mbappe
- 21' ⚽ T. Aasgaard A. Schjelderup
- 32' ⚽ O. Dembele A. Tchouameni
- 46' 🔄 K. Thorstvedt M. Thorsby · Substitution 1
- 46' 🔄 F. Bjorkan M. Pedersen · Substitution 2
- 50' ⚽️ Jørgen Strand Larsen · Missed Penalty
- 65' 🔄 M. Olise R. Cherki · Substitution 1
- 65' 🔄 O. Dembele B. Barcola · Substitution 2
- 66' 🔄 H. Falchener S. Langas · Substitution 3
- 74' 🟨 Aurélien Tchouaméni · Yellow Card
- 76' 🔄 D. Upamecano I. Konate · Substitution 3
- 83' 🔄 A. Schjelderup J. Hauge · Substitution 4
- 83' 🔄 O. Bobb A. Nusa · Substitution 5
- 87' 🔄 J. Kounde M. Gusto · Substitution 4
- 87' 🔄 K. Mbappe J. Mateta · Substitution 5
- 90' ⚽ D. Doue B. Barcola
Lineups
Norway
4-3-3
Starting XI
- 13 E. Selvik G
- 14 F. Aursnes D
- 25 H. Falchener D
- 4 L. Ostigard D
- 15 F. Bjorkan D
- 18 K. Thorstvedt M
- 6 P. Berg M
- 19 T. Aasgaard M
- 22 O. Bobb F
- 11 J. Larsen F
- 21 A. Schjelderup F
Substitutes
- 1 O. Nyland G
- 12 S. Tangvik G
- 7 A. Sorloth F
- 2 M. Thorsby M
- 10 M. Odegaard M
- 3 K. Ajer D
- 8 S. Berge M
- 26 J. Ryerson D
- 23 J. Hauge M
- 17 T. Heggem D
- 5 D. Wolfe D
- 9 E. Haaland F
- 16 M. Pedersen D
- 24 S. Langas D
- 20 A. Nusa M
👨🏫 Coach: Stale Solbakken
France
4-2-3-1
Starting XI
- 16 M. Maignan G
- 5 J. Kounde D
- 4 D. Upamecano D
- 26 M. Lacroix D
- 19 T. Hernandez D
- 8 A. Tchouameni M
- 6 M. Kone M
- 7 O. Dembele M
- 11 M. Olise M
- 20 D. Doue M
- 10 K. Mbappe F
Substitutes
- 1 B. Samba G
- 23 R. Risser G
- 15 I. Konate D
- 17 W. Saliba D
- 2 M. Gusto D
- 25 M. Akliouche M
- 18 W. Zaire-Emery M
- 3 L. Digne D
- 13 N. Kante M
- 14 A. Rabiot M
- 21 L. Hernandez D
- 9 M. Thuram F
- 22 J. Mateta F
- 24 R. Cherki M
- 12 B. Barcola F
👨🏫 Coach: Didier Deschamps
Statistics
Norway
France
4
9
3
6
10
18
3
3
6
10
4
8
9
11
4
5
1
2
43%
57%
1
1
0
0
5
3
421
555
343
480
81%
86%
1.70
1.50
0.41
0.41
The Stakes
A heavyweight finale for top spot. Both France (1st, +5) and Norway (2nd, +4) have a perfect six points and are already through; the winner tops Group I — and a draw sends both through but leaves seeding on goal difference. Norway, back at a World Cup since 1998, can top a group for the first time ever; France will want first place and momentum but may rotate. Haaland (4 goals) vs Mbappé (4 goals) headlines it.
Key Points
- Haaland vs Saliba/Upamecano: four goals already, a real test for France’s elite centre-backs; his aerial/physical threat is unlike anything Iraq or Senegal posed.
- France’s depth & possible rotation: Deschamps may rest a midfielder with the knockouts in mind, introducing uncertainty — but the squad is far deeper (Mbappé, Dembélé, Olise, Doué).
- Both attacks firing: France conceded just once but Norway’s front line is potent — both teams to score is live.
- Goal-difference seeding: a better draw is at stake, so neither will fully coast.
Prediction & Probabilities
| Outcome | Typical odds | Implied (no-vig) | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| France win | −110 (1.91) | ~48% | 48% |
| Draw | +280 (3.80) | ~24% | 24% |
| Norway win | +320 (4.20) | ~28% | 28% |
Verdict: France’s depth and defensive solidity should edge it, but Haaland ensures goals — expect a competitive, open game. Headline call: France 2-1 (France top the group)
Bets to Note
- France to win & BTTS — French quality plus Norway’s attack too dangerous to be shut out.
- Both teams to score — two potent front lines; France not fully watertight.
- Erling Haaland anytime scorer — four goals already, relentless box threat.
- Kylian Mbappé anytime scorer — France’s focal point, also on four for the tournament.
Prediction & Odds
💡 Tip: Combo Double chance : draw or France and +1.5 goals
