Senegal vs Iraq — World Cup 2026 Group I, 26 June 2026: Prediction, Odds & Key Bets
World Cup
· Group Stage - 3
·
· 🏟 BMO Field, Toronto
👨⚖️ Referee: Anthony Taylor, England
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Match Events
- 4' ⚽ H. Diarra A. Seck
- 12' 📺 Rebin Sulaka · Card upgrade
- 13' 🟥 Rebin Sulaka · Red Card
- 16' 🔄 A. Qasem M. Younis · Substitution 1
- 18' 🟨 Abdoulaye Seck · Yellow Card
- 46' 🔄 A. Basil J. Hassan · Substitution 2
- 56' ⚽ I. Sarr L. Camara
- 57' 🔄 L. Camara N. Jackson · Substitution 1
- 57' 🔄 H. Diarra P. Gueye · Substitution 2
- 57' 🔄 I. Mbaye I. Ndiaye · Substitution 3
- 58' 🔄 A. Seck P. Ciss · Substitution 4
- 58' 🔄 A. Al Hamadi A. Yousif · Substitution 3
- 58' 🔄 A. Jasim A. Maknzi · Substitution 4
- 59' ⚽ P. Gueye I. Sarr
- 67' 🔄 Z. Iqbal K. Yakob · Substitution 5
- 71' ⚽ P. Gueye I. Ndiaye
- 75' 🟨 Amir Al-Ammari · Yellow Card
- 81' 🟨 Pape Gueye · Yellow Card
- 81' 🔄 I. Sarr A. Diao · Substitution 5
- 82' ⚽ I. Ndiaye P. Gueye
- 90' 🟨 Merchas Doski · Yellow Card
Lineups
Senegal
4-3-3
Starting XI
- 23 M. Diaw G
- 15 K. Diatta D
- 4 A. Seck D
- 19 M. Niakhate D
- 14 I. Jakobs D
- 21 H. Diarra M
- 5 I. Gueye M
- 8 L. Camara M
- 20 I. Mbaye F
- 18 I. Sarr F
- 10 S. Mane F
Substitutes
- 1 Y. Diouf G
- 3 K. Koulibaly D
- 11 N. Jackson F
- 9 B. Dieng F
- 24 A. Mendy D
- 2 M. Sarr D
- 7 A. Diao F
- 12 C. Ndiaye F
- 26 P. Gueye M
- 6 P. Ciss M
- 13 I. Ndiaye F
- 17 P. M. Sarr M
- 25 M. Diouf D
- 22 B. Sapoko Ndiaye M
👨🏫 Coach: Bouna Thiaw Pape
Iraq
4-2-3-1
Starting XI
- 22 A. Basil G
- 26 F. Putros D
- 2 R. Sulaka D
- 5 A. Hashem D
- 23 M. Doski D
- 14 Z. Iqbal M
- 16 A. Al Ammari M
- 11 A. Qasem M
- 17 A. Jasim M
- 8 I. Bayesh M
- 9 A. Al Hamadi F
Substitutes
- 12 J. Hassan G
- 1 F. Talib G
- 13 A. Yousif F
- 3 H. Ali D
- 21 M. Farji M
- 4 Z. Tahseen D
- 10 M. Ali
- 18 A. Hussein F
- 19 K. Yakob M
- 20 A. Sher M
- 7 Y. Amyn F
- 15 A. Maknzi D
- 6 M. Younis D
- 24 Z. Ismaeel M
- 25 M. Saadoon D
👨🏫 Coach: Graham Arnold
Statistics
Senegal
Iraq
12
1
11
1
28
6
5
4
17
1
11
5
10
11
12
3
1
0
69%
31%
2
2
0
1
1
7
590
266
517
184
88%
69%
3.01
0.14
-0.07
-0.07
The Stakes
Both arrive on zero points after losing to France and Norway, so automatic qualification is gone — only a slim best-third-placed route survives, and realistically only for the winner, with a big scoreline needed. Senegal carry far more quality but have leaked goals (three conceded in two games); Iraq are organised but limited going forward. A must-win for both, with Senegal’s tournament on the line.
Key Points
- Senegal’s talent vs their wobble: the Lions of Teranga have the better squad (Sarr, Jackson, Mendy) but conceded three to both France and Norway — defensively shaky.
- Iraq’s profile: defensive under Graham Arnold, threat mainly through Aymen Hussein and Ali Al-Hamadi; tough to break down but blunt.
- Goal difference matters: Senegal need not just a win but a margin to climb the third-place table.
- First-ever meeting: no head-to-head; quality and urgency favour Senegal.
Prediction & Probabilities
| Outcome | Typical odds | Implied (no-vig) | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal win | −175 (1.57) | ~58% | 58% |
| Draw | +260 (3.60) | ~25% | 25% |
| Iraq win | +420 (5.20) | ~17% | 17% |
Verdict: Senegal win, and they’ll chase a margin to keep their slim qualification hopes alive against a stubborn Iraq. Headline call: Senegal 2-0 (or 2-1)
Bets to Note
- Senegal to win — superior quality and far more attacking threat against a limited Iraq.
- Senegal −1.5 handicap — they need a margin for the third-place math.
- Nicolas Jackson / Ismaïla Sarr anytime scorer — Senegal’s likeliest sources.
- Under 2.5 a contrarian lean — if Iraq’s low block holds and Senegal’s nerves show.
Prediction & Odds
💡 Tip: Combo Double chance : Senegal or draw and +1.5 goals
