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Match Events
- 46' 🟨 Jackson Irvine · Yellow Card
- 46' 🔄 A. Maidana Mauricio · Substitution 1
- 58' 🔄 C. Volpato A. Hrustic · Substitution 1
- 67' 🔄 G. Avalos A. Arce · Substitution 2
- 77' 🟨 Diego Gómez · Yellow Card
- 84' 🔄 O. Alderete J. Canale · Substitution 3
- 84' 🔄 J. Irvine P. Okon-Engstler · Substitution 2
- 84' 🔄 N. Irankunda T. Yengi · Substitution 3
- 90+2' 🔄 M. Galarza J. Alonso · Substitution 4
- 90+2' 🔄 D. Gomez D. Bobadilla · Substitution 5
Lineups
Paraguay
5-3-2
Starting XI
- 12 O. Gill G
- 4 J. Caceres D
- 2 G. Velazquez D
- 15 G. Gomez D
- 3 O. Alderete D
- 26 A. Maidana D
- 8 D. Gomez M
- 14 A. Cubas M
- 23 M. Galarza M
- 21 G. Avalos F
- 19 J. Enciso F
Substitutes
- 1 R. Fernandez
- 22 G. Olveira G
- 5 Fabian Balbuena D
- 9 A. Sanabria F
- 6 J. Alonso D
- 24 G. Caballero F
- 13 J. Canale D
- 25 I. Pitta F
- 11 Mauricio M
- 7 R. Sosa F
- 17 Kaku M
- 18 A. Arce F
- 20 B. Ojeda M
- 16 D. Bobadilla M
👨🏫 Coach: Gustavo Alfaro
Australia
3-4-2-1
Starting XI
- 18 P. Beach G
- 3 A. Circati D
- 19 H. Souttar D
- 25 L. Herrington D
- 5 J. Bos M
- 13 A. O'Neill M
- 22 J. Irvine M
- 16 A. Behich M
- 20 C. Volpato F
- 8 C. Metcalfe F
- 17 N. Irankunda F
Substitutes
- 1 M. Ryan G
- 12 P. Izzo G
- 6 J. Geria D
- 11 A. Mabil M
- 21 C. Burgess D
- 10 A. Hrustic M
- 15 K. Trewin D
- 9 M. Toure F
- 24 P. Okon-Engstler M
- 2 M. Degenek D
- 14 C. Devlin M
- 26 T. Yengi F
- 23 N. Velupillay F
👨🏫 Coach: Tony Popovic
Statistics
Paraguay
Australia
2
5
4
4
7
12
1
3
3
7
4
5
9
6
1
3
0
0
44%
56%
1
1
0
0
5
2
426
537
330
438
77%
82%
0.24
0.55
0.30
0.30
The Stakes
This is the real Group D decider. With the USA already top and Türkiye eliminated, Paraguay and Australia are level on three points each, scrapping for second place — and the winner takes it. A draw would push both into the nervy best-third-placed calculation. Played simultaneously with Türkiye–USA, so no scoreboard-watching late on. A tight, tense, transition-heavy game is likely.
Key Points
- Win-or-bust for second: a draw helps neither cleanly; both need three points to be sure of automatic qualification.
- Paraguay’s identity: organised, physical, transition-focused under Gustavo Alfaro — Almirón & Enciso the creative spark, Sanabria the reference up top.
- Australia’s defensive floor: Mat Ryan in goal keeps games tight; they beat Türkiye and pushed the USA — disciplined and dangerous on set pieces.
- Low-scoring lean: two cautious, well-drilled sides in a must-win points to few goals.
Prediction & Probabilities
| Outcome | Typical odds | Implied (no-vig) | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay win | +115 (2.15) | ~41% | 41% |
| Draw | +205 (3.05) | ~31% | 31% |
| Australia win | +220 (3.20) | ~28% | 28% |
Verdict: a cagey, even contest with Paraguay marginally favoured on creativity. Expect it tight and decided by a single moment or set piece. Headline call: Paraguay 1-0 (or 1-1 draw)
Bets to Note
- Under 2.5 goals — two organised, defence-first sides in a tense winner-takes-second.
- Paraguay or draw (double chance) — slight creative edge and a draw not disastrous early.
- Miguel Almirón anytime / assist — Paraguay’s most likely match-winner.
- Both teams to score — No — set-piece-reliant, low-scoring profile.
Prediction & Odds
💡 Tip: Double chance : draw or Australia
