Türkiye vs USA — World Cup 2026 Group D, 26 June 2026: Prediction, Odds & Key Bets
World Cup
· Group Stage - 3
·
· 🏟 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood 
Match Events
- 3' ⚽ A. Trusty S. Berhalter
- 10' ⚽ A. Guler B. Yilmaz
- 19' 🟨 Sebastian Berhalter · Yellow Card
- 31' ⚽ B. Yilmaz O. Kokcu
- 49' ⚽ S. Berhalter
- 58' 🔄 T. Weah C. Pulisic · Substitution 1
- 76' 🔄 G. Reyna S. Dest · Substitution 2
- 77' 🔄 B. Aaronson A. Zendejas · Substitution 3
- 77' 🔄 J. Scally A. Freeman · Substitution 4
- 84' 🔄 Z. Celik C. Soyuncu · Substitution 1
- 84' 🔄 K. Yildiz C. Uzun · Substitution 2
- 86' 🔄 W. McKennie M. Tillman · Substitution 5
- 88' 🔄 O. Kokcu K. Ayhan · Substitution 3
- 90+2' 🔄 O. Aydin M. Muldur · Substitution 4
- 90+2' 🔄 B. Yilmaz I. Kahveci · Substitution 5
- 90' ⚽ K. Ayhan
Lineups
Türkiye
3-4-2-1
Starting XI
- 23 U. Cakir G
- 2 Z. Celik D
- 15 O. Kabak D
- 14 A. Bardakci D
- 24 O. Aydin M
- 5 S. Ozcan M
- 6 O. Kokcu M
- 13 E. Elmali M
- 8 A. Guler F
- 11 K. Yildiz F
- 21 B. Yilmaz F
Substitutes
- 1 M. Gunok G
- 12 A. Bayindir G
- 25 S. Akaydin D
- 18 M. Muldur D
- 19 Y. Akgun F
- 16 I. Yuksek M
- 9 D. Gul F
- 22 K. Ayhan D
- 10 H. Calhanoglu M
- 4 C. Soyuncu D
- 17 I. Kahveci M
- 3 M. Demiral D
- 20 F. Kadioglu D
- 7 K. Akturkoglu F
- 26 C. Uzun M
USA
4-3-3
Starting XI
- 1 M. Turner G
- 23 J. Scally D
- 12 M. Robinson D
- 22 M. McKenzie D
- 6 A. Trusty D
- 8 W. McKennie M
- 14 S. Berhalter M
- 7 G. Reyna M
- 11 B. Aaronson F
- 9 R. Pepi F
- 21 T. Weah F
Substitutes
- 24 M. Freese G
- 25 C. Brady G
- 13 T. Ream D
- 4 T. Adams M
- 5 A. Robinson D
- 20 F. Balogun F
- 19 H. Wright F
- 26 A. Zendejas F
- 10 C. Pulisic M
- 2 S. Dest D
- 3 C. Richards D
- 17 M. Tillman M
- 16 A. Freeman D
- 18 M. Arfsten M
Statistics
The Stakes
A dead rubber on paper. The USA have already topped Group D with two wins (4:1 Paraguay, 2:0 Australia); Türkiye are stunningly eliminated, beaten 0:2 by Australia and 0:1 by Paraguay despite a huge shot count — they have yet to score. The USA play for momentum and a clean sweep; Türkiye for pride and a first goal. Note: nominally “Türkiye vs USA” but played at SoFi in front of a home USA crowd.
Key Points
- Rotation likely: Pochettino may rest Pulisic, Adams, Balogun, Richards, A. Robinson (yellows/knockout management) — narrows the edge.
- Türkiye’s paradox: 62 shots across two games, zero goals — dominated possession but wasteful; desperate to avoid going home scoreless.
- Goals trend: seven of the USA’s last nine games had 3+ goals; USA kept just one clean sheet in ten — points to an open game.
- BTTS angle: both teams scored in all five prior head-to-heads.
Prediction & Probabilities
| Outcome | Typical odds | Implied (no-vig) | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| USA win | +150 (2.50) | ~38% | 37% |
| Draw | +285 (3.85) | ~25% | 26% |
| Türkiye win | +160 (2.60) | ~37% | 37% |
Verdict: a genuine coin-flip given likely USA rotation and Türkiye’s need to finally fire. Lean to goals at both ends. Headline call: 2-2 draw (or a narrow Türkiye win as they salvage pride)
Bets to Note
- Both teams to score — USA’s leaky recent defence + Türkiye finally finding a goal; BTTS in all five H2H.
- Over 2.5 goals — open game, USA rotation, Türkiye chasing a statement.
- Türkiye draw no bet / +0.5 — value if the USA rest key men.
- Kenan Yıldız anytime scorer — Türkiye’s livewire, due a first World Cup goal after a high shot volume.
Odds are indicative (early June 2026) and move constantly — confirm live prices with a licensed operator before betting. For information/entertainment only; not betting advice. 18+ (21+ in some US jurisdictions). Betting involves risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, seek support (e.g. 1-800-GAMBLER in the US, BeGambleAware.org in the UK).
Prediction & Odds
💡 Tip: Winner : USA
