Tunisia vs Netherlands — World Cup 2026 Group F, 25 June 2026: Prediction, Odds & Key Bets
World Cup
· Group Stage - 3
·
· 🏟 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City 
Match Events
- 3' 🥅 E. Skhiri · Own Goal
- 7' ⚽ B. Brobbey V. van Dijk
- 54' ⚽ H. Mastouri H. Mejbri
- 62' ⚽ J. P. van Hecke T. Reijnders
- 67' 🔄 R. Khedira M. Belhadj · Substitution 1
- 68' 🔄 A. Slimane E. Achouri · Substitution 2
- 68' 🔄 M. Ben Hamida M. Ben Ouanes · Substitution 3
- 72' 🔄 D. Malen C. Summerville · Substitution 1
- 72' 🔄 F. de Jong T. Koopmeiners · Substitution 2
- 72' 🔄 T. Reijnders J. Kluivert · Substitution 3
- 75' 🔄 I. Gharbi F. Chaouat · Substitution 4
- 77' 🔄 B. Brobbey M. Depay · Substitution 4
- 84' 🔄 C. Gakpo N. Lang · Substitution 5
- 90' 🔄 H. Mastouri S. Tounekti · Substitution 5
Lineups
Netherlands
4-3-3
Starting XI
- 1 B. Verbruggen G
- 22 D. Dumfries D
- 6 J. P. van Hecke D
- 4 V. van Dijk D
- 5 N. Ake D
- 8 R. Gravenberch M
- 21 F. de Jong M
- 14 T. Reijnders M
- 18 D. Malen F
- 19 B. Brobbey F
- 11 C. Gakpo F
Substitutes
- 23 M. Flekken G
- 13 R. Roefs G
- 10 M. Depay F
- 9 W. Weghorst F
- 26 Q. Timber M
- 24 C. Summerville F
- 12 M. Wieffer M
- 15 M. van de Ven D
- 3 M. De Roon M
- 20 T. Koopmeiners M
- 7 J. Kluivert F
- 16 G. Til M
- 17 N. Lang F
- 2 L. Geertruida D
- 25 J. Hato D
Tunisia
Starting XI
- 16 A. Dahmen G
- 20 Y. Valery D
- 3 M. Talbi D
- 17 E. Skhiri D
- 21 M. Ben Hamida D
- 2 A. Abdi D
- 25 A. Slimane M
- 11 I. Gharbi M
- 13 R. Khedira M
- 10 H. Mejbri M
- 9 H. Mastouri F
Substitutes
- 22 S. Ben Hessen G
- 1 A. Chamakh G
- 19 F. Chaouat F
- 26 S. Tounekti F
- 7 E. Achouri M
- 8 E. Saad F
- 15 M. Belhadj M
- 14 K. Ayari F
- 24 R. Chikhaoui D
- 18 R. Elloumi F
- 12 M. Ben Ouanes M
- 6 D. Bronn D
- 4 O. Rekik D
Statistics
The Stakes
The Netherlands (1st, 4 pts, +4) need only a point to confirm top spot, though a win locks it regardless of Japan’s result and protects goal difference. Tunisia (4th, 0 pts, −8) are already eliminated after a 1-5 loss to Sweden and a 0-4 to Japan, playing only for pride. A clear mismatch on quality.
Key Points
- Netherlands’ firepower: 7 goals in two games; Gakpo, Memphis and the front line carry serious threat.
- Tunisia’s collapse: conceded 9, scored 1 — defensively overwhelmed and now without anything to play for.
- Dutch motivation: they may chase a margin to secure top spot on GD over Japan, but could also rotate slightly.
- Tunisia’s only hope: a disciplined low block and a set-piece or counter for a consolation.
Prediction & Probabilities
| Outcome | Typical odds | Implied (no-vig) | Our model |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands win | −400 (1.25) | ~77% | 77% |
| Draw | +450 (5.50) | ~15% | 15% |
| Tunisia win | +850 (9.50) | ~8% | 8% |
Verdict: a comfortable Dutch win, likely by two-plus as they protect top spot. Headline call: Netherlands 3-0 (or 2-0)
Bets to Note
- Netherlands to win — vast quality gap against an eliminated Tunisia.
- Netherlands −1.5 handicap — they may chase a margin for goal difference / top spot.
- Over 2.5 goals — Dutch firepower vs a leaky Tunisia defence.
- Memphis Depay / Cody Gakpo anytime scorer — the Dutch attack’s likeliest sources.
Odds are indicative (early June 2026) and move constantly — confirm live prices with a licensed operator before betting. For information/entertainment only; not betting advice. 18+ (21+ in some US jurisdictions). Betting involves risk — never stake more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, seek support (e.g. 1-800-GAMBLER in the US, BeGambleAware.org in the UK).
Prediction & Odds
💡 Tip: Combo Winner : Netherlands and +2.5 goals
Tournament Situation
Group F
| # | Team | P | Pts | ± | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Netherlands
|
3 | 7 | +6 |
L
W
W
D
|
| 2 |
Japan
|
3 | 5 | +4 |
L
D
W
D
|
| 3 |
Sweden
|
3 | 4 | 0 |
L
D
L
W
|
| 4 |
Tunisia
|
3 | 0 | -10 |
L
L
L
|
All group matches have been played.